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Negative divergence at SPY RSI on Feb 11

One of the most reliable signals that an oscillator can provide is negative or positive divergences. By using this method the probability to spot a reversal in the existing trend is magnified, especially when the divergence occurs near or at a support or resistance.

A negative divergence is when the price chart forms two consecutive higher highs but at the same points the oscillator forms two consecutive lower highs. This is a sign that the uptrend is weakening and it might reverse (short or long term).

Below we can see the daily chart of ETF SPY which is a proxy for the US stock market. We can clearly see that a negative divergence in RSI(14) has been formed and this is signaling a possible downward correction.

Negative divergence in RSI(14)

Negative divergence in RSI(14)

This negative divergence occurs within a resistance zone as we can see in the weekly chart of SPY below.

Resistance in SPY weekly chart

Resistance in SPY weekly chart

Of course in case that someone opens a short position a stop loss order must be used because no signal is 100% accurate and in case of a price move against us we want to exit the trade with a small loss. 

Divergence, oscillator, resistance, reversal, short selling

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